March 13, 2025: US PPI & Jobs Data Signal Mixed Markets—Cautious Trading Ahead

Latest producer prices rose 0.3%, while jobless claims hit 238K, painting a complex picture of inflation pressures and labor market dynamics. Here's what these cross-currents mean for your portfolio positioning.

Core Analysis

Key Economic Indicators

  • PPI: 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected (BLS)
  • Core PPI: 0.2% vs. 0.2% forecast
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 238K vs. 245K consensus
  • Canadian Building Permits: 2.1% m/m

Market Impact Breakdown

  • Rate Sensitivity: Treasury yields edged higher on stronger PPI data
  • Currency Dynamics: USD/CAD showing strength on diverging economic data
  • Sector Performance: Materials and Industrials leading, Utilities lagging

Strategic Playbook

Day Trading Focus

  • Support/Resistance Levels: SPX 5200 key resistance, 5150 support
  • Volatility Setup: VIX hovering near 15, suggesting near-term stability

Position Trading

  • Sector Rotation: Favoring cyclicals over defensives
  • Fixed Income Strategy: Maintain short duration bias, focus on credit quality

Forward Outlook

Upcoming Catalysts

  • March 14: UK GDP & US Consumer Sentiment
  • March 16: China Industrial Production
  • March 19: Fed Rate Decision

Risk Monitor

  • Inflation Path: PPI data suggests persistent price pressures
  • Labor Market: Continued resilience with claims below expectations

Sources

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Producer Price Index News Release
  2. U.S. Department of Labor - Weekly Jobless Claims Report
  3. Statistics Canada - Monthly Building Permits Survey
  4. Trading Economics - Economic Calendar
  5. S&P Global Market Intelligence - Market Analysis