U.S. GDP Growth Faces Crossroads—Strategic Positioning Ahead of Critical Data

Hook

Latest Q4 2024 GDP readings showed a resilient 2.3% growth, outpacing pessimistic forecasts, while consumer spending contributed a robust 2.8 percentage points. As we approach the February 5th GDP releases for multiple major economies, traders face a pivotal moment for Q1 2025 positioning.

Core Analysis

Key Developments

• U.S. annual GDP growth hit 2.5% Q4/Q4, with full-year 2024 posting 2.8% YoY
• Consumer durables showed unexpected strength, particularly in information processing equipment
• Government spending added 0.4 percentage points, offsetting -1.2 point drag from business investment

Sector Breakdown

• Healthcare services leading service sector growth (hospital and nursing services)
• Transportation showing mixed signals with strong vehicle sales but weakening freight metrics
• Inventory depletion suggests potential restocking catalyst for Q1 2025

Strategic Playbook

Short-Term (Traders)

• Watch for February 5th GDP releases from Indonesia (forecast: 4.95% YoY) and Russia (expected: 3.6% YoY)
• Position for potential volatility around February 12th CPI release, given recent 2.9% headline print

Long-Term (Investors)

• Consider defensive positioning in healthcare, given sector's consistent growth metrics
• Monitor TIPS spreads for inflation protection, with Reference CPI at 315.49300 for February 2025

Forward Outlook

Catalysts

• February 5: Multiple country GDP releases including Indonesia's Q4 data
• February 12: U.S. CPI report
• February 13: UK preliminary Q4 GDP (consensus: 0% QoQ, 0.9% YoY)

Risk Radar

• Fed policy pivot timing with potential rate cuts in H2 2025
• Hurricane Milton's impact on regional investment and infrastructure spending